“Rare Earth Elements” analysis from the National Intelligence Academy

Petroturk | Energy News

• Published May 30, 2025 17:16

In the analysis published by the academy, it was emphasized that rare earth elements (REE) have become the center of the global energy transformation and that the elements have become one of the determining elements not only of technological production but also of the geopolitical power struggle.

The analysis, which stated that NTE has become indispensable not only for electric vehicles, wind turbines and electronic devices but also for critical platforms of the defense industry, included an estimate that the critical minerals market, which reached 325 billion dollars in 2024, will reach 770 billion dollars in 2040. It was also stated that the NTE-based electronics and engine industry has already exceeded 1 trillion dollars.

“The US is completely dependent on foreign countries for heavy REE”

The academy’s analysis also pointed out China’s dominant position in the global NTE market, stating that “As of 2024, China will alone account for 61 percent of global NTE ore production and 92 percent of refining and separation.” It was reported in the analysis that China has adopted and strengthened the “produce, restrict, license” model, and that it maintains its influential position on global pricing.

One of the striking evaluations in the analysis was the US's "high dependence" on strategic resources.

The analysis, which stated that the US imported 70 percent of the NTEs it needed between 2020 and 2023 from China, included the assessment that “The US is completely dependent on foreign sources for heavy NTEs. With an F-35 fighter jet requiring approximately 410 kilograms, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer requiring 2.36 tons, and a Virginia-class submarine requiring 4.17 tons of NTEs, any supply disruption could have negative effects on the US’s deterrence architecture.”

US is trying to close the NTE gap

According to the analysis, while the US has made attempts to reduce its dependence on China for REE, it has adopted a “fifty-fifty joint fund” model instead of the previous $500 billion repayment plan with the Minerals Agreement with Ukraine.

The analysis stated, “Thus, Ukraine’s 5 percent global reserve potential has created a strategic alternative supply line for the US. However, it was also noted that 40 percent of the reserves are in regions occupied by Russia and that the devastating effects of war on infrastructure will limit production in the short term. Dysprosium and terbium-rich deposits in Greenland are considered another strategic priority for the US that will close the serious REE deficit.”

Türkiye's goal is to become a leading actor

In the analysis prepared by the National Intelligence Academy, a special section was reserved for the resources Türkiye has.

The analysis, which stated that the 694 million ton reserve in Eskişehir Beylikova “has made Türkiye the second largest NTE field in the world after China,” included the determination that “After the 10 thousand ton annual pilot plant becomes operational, Türkiye’s goal is to reach an annual purification capacity of 570 thousand tonnes and become the leading actor in this field, especially in Europe and the nearby region.”

In the analysis, which conveyed that a three-axis strategy was presented for Türkiye to become not only a reserve holder but also a value-added producing actor in the next 10 years, the view was included: "This strategy includes JORC/UMREK compatible verification processes, scalable refining infrastructure and advanced magnetic alloy R&D, integration of cyclic recovery lines."

The analysis pointed out that NTE is no longer just an economic commodity, and that it has become “a geopolitical lever and strategic weapon.”

The analysis, which conveyed that diversification of the global supply chain and rapid integration of new producer and processor actors (Turkey, Ukraine, Greenland) into the system has become mandatory, evaluated that "Global competition is no longer only deepening in mines, but also in refineries, magnets and advanced technology production rings."

AA